🔺 Zangezur: One Corridor, Six Players, Six Calculations 🖊 Mohammad Ali Ranjbar The Zangezur Corridor, once a local transit route in the South Caucasus, has transformed into a geopolitical arena where six key players now stand both opposed and entangled in a complex interplay. 🇺🇸 United States: Peacemaker or Game-Changer? Entering the Azerbaijan-Armenia conflict under the banner of "peace mediation," it seized control of the Zangezur route to cement its economic and security presence in the heart of the Caucasus. Gain: Diminishing Russian influence, securing a critical transit artery. Risk: Provoking reactions from Iran and Russia. 🇮🇷 Iran: Red Lines and Parallel Pathways From the outset, Tehran declared any border alterations or security threats as non-negotiable red lines. By establishing the "Aras Corridor" within its territory, it enabled Azerbaijan-Nakhchivan connectivity—rendering the U.S.-controlled route redundant. Gain: Sustained transit leverage, strategic coordination with Russia. Risk: If the U.S. project advances, it will diminish the transit role and direct American presence on Iran’s northern border. 🇦🇿 Azerbaijan: Linking to a Long-Cherished Dream Baku’s quest for a direct route to Nakhchivan and Turkey now appears within reach—on paper. Gain: Enhanced geopolitical standing, deeper integration with Turkey. Risk: Ceding partial corridor control to the U.S., tensions with Iran and Russia. 🇦🇲 Armenia: The Costly Peace Yerevan accepted the deal to break its isolation and relieve pressure. Gain: Reduced encirclement, potential investment inflows. Risk: Domestic backlash over sovereignty concessions, strained ties with Russia. 🇹🇷 Turkey: Completing the Turkic World Puzzle Zangezur is a critical node in Ankara’s "Turkic World Connectivity" project. Gain: New trade routes and cultural-political influence. Risk: Balancing act between Iran and the U.S. 🇷🇺 Russia: A Forced Retreat Once the Caucasus’ uncontested power, Moscow now sees its guarantor and mediator roles fading. Gain: Limited coordination with Iran to stall U.S. plans. Risk: Eroding influence in a strategic theater. 📌 Strategic Takeaway: Zangezur is no longer a local thoroughfare—it’s the frontline of great-power friction. The U.S. seeks a foothold, Iran guards its leverage, Azerbaijan nears its connectivity dream, Armenia gambles on peace amid sovereignty fears, Turkey advances its Turkic vision, and Russia scrambles to salvage its waning dominance. 🔻 For Iran, Zangezur isn’t merely a border issue—it’s a test of preserving northern geopolitical depth and thwarting America’s strategic encirclement. #Strategic_Insight #Zangezur #South_Caucasus #Geopolitics #Iran_Strategy @Binesh_Rahbordi